Tuesday, June 30, 2009

Samuelson sees trouble looming

This column by Robert Samuelson is especially important.

First, he is alert to the failures of regulation. It's sometimes thought that regulators are objective, therefore more reliable. But precisely because they have "no skin in the game" they often fail.

As Glenn Beck and others note, the SEC had chances to nab Bernie Madoff. But it failed to act.

For a bureaucrat, there's no payoff to action. Better to knock off early, CYA, and collect that pension.

Second, he points out that regulation can be more dangerous.

From the last graf: "So the next crisis could come from anywhere -- perhaps the follies of government, not finance. Between now and 2019, the U.S. federal debt could rise to $11 trillion, projects the Congressional Budget Office. U.S. Treasury bonds are the bedrock of the global financial system; they're considered safe and reliable. What if a glut of bonds causes investors to lose faith? Good question."

You didn't like the Internet bubble or the mortgage bubble? What about the Treasury bond bubble? It would dwarf what we went through in 2001 and are going through now.

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