The invention of lying

On Climategate and the psychology of lying:

Let us look only at the psychology of this. Key fact: they destroyed notes to the most important discovery of all time.

The CRU people reportedly destroyed the original data. That is a lie; it is psychologically impossible. Look, this was the data to the most important scientific discovery of all time -- in their minds.

This wasn't old sales receipts from ten years ago. This wasn't your old pile of National Geographic. This was key information. You have to keep that. What if something comes up? What if you need to take a look at it? You keep it in a safe.

If -- if -- you treasure that information.

There's another aspect that's just as important. This information is the equivalent of Darwin's notebooks. Someday it will be displayed in the Museum of Climatology, as a memorial to how brave scientists saved the planet.

If you believe that, that is. There's no way you destroy that information.

2. The howls. Dostoyevsky, The Brothers Karamazov. (Pevear and Volokhonsy translation.) The elder Zosima, on lying: (p.44, paperback ed.)

"A man who lies to himself is often the first to take offense. It sometimes feels very good to take offense,doesn't it? ... And surely he knows that no one has offended him, and that he himself has invented the offense and told lies just for the beauty of it,that he has exaggerated for the sake of effect, that he has picked on a word and made a mountain out of a pea ...."

If it's a minor thing, why the howling?

The British prime minister quoted in the Guardian:

"With only days to go before Copenhagen we mustn't be distracted by the behind-the-times, anti-science, flat-earth climate sceptics," Brown told the Guardian. "We know the science. We know what we must do. We must now act and close the 5bn-tonne gap. That will seal the deal."

Similarly, raising the ante. Al Gore: “Are we doing enough? The answer is obviously no — 450 is not the right target. But it is presently seen as beyond the capacity of governments around the world. We are stretching the capacity of governments even to hit a 450 target.” Gore thinks the target should be 350. This raising the ante is another form of bluff, as it is in cards.Which of course comes back to the data. Why wouldn't you be showing it off everywhere? Publishing it on the Internet.

3. A lot of mysteries begin with motive. There is no money in saying: "The weather for tomorrow is immensely complex. The world climate is exponentially more difficult."

There is a motive to lie, as many have said. Billions are being thrown around, if you can say there is a huge cataclysm.

Moreover, how can it be disproved? It's huge, it's complex. And who want to get off the gravy train? It's like the Madoff scam. Who can prove you wrong? You can make money, for awhile.

Conclusion: The best thing I ever learned about politicians was: Assume they are lying until proven otherwise.

Sadly, this may now apply to scientists. There are a lot of reasons why they might be lying.